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Poll: Romanoff barely beating Bennet; Maes ahead of McInnis

4:25 PM, Aug 2, 2010   |    comments
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The pollster asked 536 likely and actual Democratic primary voters who they supported or would support in the August 10th election and 48 percent chose Romanoff, 45 percent selected Bennet and 8 percent were undecided. The margin of error is 4.3 percent.

In June, a similar poll conducted by Survey USA showed Bennet with a 53-36 lead. This poll was conducted from July 27-29 by phone.

The poll also shows the likely impact of a series of stories regarding plagiarism of water essays by Republican candidate for governor Scott McInnis. Of 588 likely and actual Republican primary voters, 43 percent said they were supporting Dan Maes, 39 percent are in favor of McInnis and a whopping 18 percent remained undecided with a little over two weeks to go before the election.

In June, a similar poll showed McInnis with a commanding 57-29 lead over Maes.

Last week, former Republican congressman Tom Tancredo left his party and entered the race for governor as an American Constitution Party candidate. The Colorado GOP chairman, Dick Wadhams, accused Tancredo of giving the race to the Democratic candidate, Denver Mayor John Hickenlooper.

The Survey USA poll illustrates Wadhams fears. In a 3-way matchup, Maes gets 24 percent, Hickenlooper gets 46 percent and Tancredo gets 24 percent. If McInnis is in that 3-way scenario, he has the support of 25 percent of voters, Tancredo gets 26 percent and Hickenlooper gets 44 percent. The margin of error among the one thousand or so voters is 3.1 and 3.2 percent.

The other major race that voters were asked about was the Republican primary for U.S. Senate. Weld County District Attorney Ken Buck had the support of 50 percent of the 588 voters surveyed while former Lieutenant Governor Jane Norton had 41 percent. Nine percent were undecided. The margin of error was 4.1 percent.

Here are the breakdowns of the poll:

Results of SurveyUSA Election Poll #16883
Geography Surveyed: Colorado
Data Collected: 07/27/2010 - 07/29/2010
Release Date: 07/30/2010 07:00 ET
Sponsor: Denver Post/KUSA-TV, Denver CO

Colorado Electoral Landscape as of 08/01/10 - 10 days to Statewide Primary, 3 months to General Election:

* GOP Primary / Governor: Maes Overtakes McInnis.
* GOP Primary / US Senate: Norton with Momentum, But Buck Still On Top.
* GOP Primary / State Treasurer: Ament Catches Stapleton.
* Democratic Primary / US Senate: Romanoff Now in Tight Fight With Bennet.
* Hypothetical November General Election / Governor / 2-Way: Hickenlooper 5:4 Atop Maes.
* Hypothetical November General Election / Governor / 2-Way: Hickenlooper 9:8 Atop McInnis.
* Hypothetical November General Election, Governor / 3-Way: Hickenlooper Defeats Maes and Tancredo.
* Hypothetical November General Election / Governor / 3-Way: Hickenlooper Defeats McInnis and Tancredo.
* Hypothetical November General Election / US Senate: Buck & Romanoff Tied.
* Hypothetical November General Election / US Senate: Buck & Bennett Tied.
* Hypothetical November General Election / US Senate: Norton Narrowly Atop Romanoff.
* Hypothetical November General Election / US Senate: Bennet Narrowly Atop Norton.

Filtering: 2,300 state of Colorado adults were interviewed by SurveyUSA 07/27/10 through 07/29/10. Of them, 1,997 were registered to vote. Of the registered voters, 588 were determined by SurveyUSA to have already voted or to be likely to vote in the 08/10/10 Republican Primary; 536 were determined by SurveyUSA to have already voted or to be likely to vote in the 08/10/10 Democratic Primary. 46 of 64 Colorado counties will vote entirely by mail in this primary election. Incumbent Democratic Governor Bill Ritter is not seeking a second term. Michael Bennet, currently serving as Colorado's Junior US Senator, was appointed by Ritter to fill the seat in January 2009, when Ken Salazar resigned to become Secretary of the Interior.

1. Asked of 588 Likely & Actual GOP Primary Voters
Margin of Sampling Error for this question = ± 4.1%

[Candidate names rotated]
For Governor ... If you were filling out your Republican ballot in the Republican Primary for Governor today, who would you vote for? Dan Maes? Or Scott McInnis?

43% Maes
39% McInnis
18% Undecided

2. Asked of 588 Likely & Actual GOP Primary Voters
Margin of Sampling Error for this question = ± 4.1%

[Candidate names rotated]
For US Senator ... If you were filling out your Republican ballot in the Republican Primary for US Senate today, who would you vote for? Ken Buck? Or Jane Norton?

50% Buck
41% Norton
9% Undecided

3. Asked of 588 Likely & Actual GOP Primary Voters
Margin of Sampling Error for this question = ± 4.1%

[Candidate names rotated]
For State Treasurer ... If you were filling out your Republican ballot in the Republican Primary for State Treasurer today, who would you vote for? J.J. Ament? Or Walker Stapleton?

39% Ament
36% Stapleton
25% Undecided

4. Asked of 536 Likely & Actual Democratic Primary Voters
Margin of Sampling Error for this question = ± 4.3%

[Candidate names rotated]
For US Senator ... If you were filling out your Democratic ballot in the Democratic Primary for US Senate today, who would you vote for? Andrew Romanoff? Or Michael Bennet?

48% Romanoff
45% Bennet
8% Undecided

5. Asked of 1015 50% split sample of registered voters
Margin of Sampling Error for this question = ± 3.1%

Thinking ahead now to the general election in November ... If the general election for Governor were today, and the only 2 candidates on the ballot were Republican Dan Maes and Democrat John Hickenlooper, who would you vote for?

41% Maes (R)
50% Hickenlooper (D)
9% Undecided

6. Asked of 982 50% split sample of registered voters
Margin of Sampling Error for this question = ± 3.2%

Thinking ahead now to the general election in November ... If the general election for Governor were today, and the only 2 candidates on the ballot were Republican Scott McInnis and Democrat John Hickenlooper, who would you vote for?

43% McInnis (R)
48% Hickenlooper (D)
9% Undecided

7. Asked of 1015 50% split sample of registered voters
Margin of Sampling Error for this question = ± 3.1%

What if the general election for Governor were today, and the 3 candidates were Republican Dan Maes, Democrat John Hickenlooper, and American Constitution Party candidate Tom Tancredo, who would you vote for?

24% Maes (R)
46% Hickenlooper (D)
24% Tancredo (AC)
7% Undecided

8. Asked of 982 50% split sample of registered voters
Margin of Sampling Error for this question = ± 3.2%

What if the general election for Governor were today, and the 3 candidates were Republican Scott McInnis, Democrat John Hickenlooper, and American Constitution Party candidate Tom Tancredo, who would you vote for?

25% McInnis (R)
44% Hickenlooper (D)
26% Tancredo (AC)
6% Undecided

9. Asked of 1047 50% split sample of registered voters
Margin of Sampling Error for this question = ± 3.1%

If the general election for US Senate were today, and the candidates were Republican Ken Buck and Democrat Andrew Romanoff, who would you vote for?

44% Buck (R)
44% Romanoff (D)
6% Third Party
6% Undecided

10. Asked of 950 50% split sample of registered voters
Margin of Sampling Error for this question = ± 3.2%

If the general election for US Senate were today, and the candidates were Republican Ken Buck and Democrat Michael Bennet, who would you vote for?

43% Buck (R)
43% Bennet (D)
7% Third Party
7% Undecided

11. Asked of 986 50% split sample of registered voters
Margin of Sampling Error for this question = ± 3.2%

What if ... the candidates for US Senate were ...Republican Jane Norton and Democrat Andrew Romanoff; who would you vote for?

45% Norton (R)
40% Romanoff (D)
8% Third Party
7% Undecided

12. Asked of 1011 50% split sample of registered voters
Margin of Sampling Error for this question = ± 3.1%

What if ... the candidates for US Senate were ... Republican Jane Norton and Democrat Michael Bennet, who would you vote for?

43% Norton (R)
46% Bennet (D)
7% Third Party
5% Undecided

13. Asked of 732 registered Republicans
Margin of Sampling Error for this question = ± 3.7%

Which of the following describes how you feel about Scott McInnis given reports that writings he authored contained plagiarized passages? I was supporting McInnis and I am still supporting McInnis. I was supporting someone else and I am still supporting someone else. I was supporting McInnis but now I am supporting someone else. I was supporting someone else but now I am supporting McInnis. Or, were you not aware of the reports?

35% Supported McInnis & Still Do
28% Supported Other & Still Do
21% Supported McInnis, Now Support Other
0% Supported Other, Now Support McInnis
9% Not Aware Of The Reports
7% Not Sure

14. Asked of 732 registered Republicans
Margin of Sampling Error for this question = ± 3.7%

Which of the following Republicans would be the strongest Republican candidate for governor? Bruce Benson? Ken Buck? Mark Hillman? Jane Norton? Or Josh Penry?

9% Benson
33% Buck
6% Hillman
26% Norton
13% Penry
13% Not Sure

(KUSA-TV © 2010 Multimedia Holdings Corporation)

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